Kick-off 30 September 2026 at 22:30 UTC · Gaúcho - 3. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
30 September 2026 at 22:30 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cruz A. win | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Both score | 59% |
| Over / under | Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Double chance | Cruz A. or SC Rio Grande | 75% |
| Clean sheet | Cruz A. clean sheet | 28% |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 12% |
| First goal | Cruz A. score first | 53% |
| Half time / full time | Cruz A. / Cruz A. | 28% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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